Friday October 21

An upper level low, and accompanying surface low will “park” just west of the PNW coastline next week.  As early as Tue – in some model solutions, Thu in others – surface disturbances (think clouds, rain) will begin to expand out from this “parked low” to impact CA.  As noted last week, RAIN can be expected to broadly impact CA by last next week.
In the meantime, warm temps on tap today and probably Sat, before cooling on Sunday, as the influence of that “parked low” expands into the Valley.  Some showers, moving up from the south may clip the far southern area of the Valley, esp over higher terrain Mon/Tue.  For patrons north of Fresno, showers may also dot the region as that cold front drapes south.  Yes, two separate atmospheric events coming into play over the great San Joaquin.
The notable WET cycle will move into the entire Valley by late week (Thu or Fri) and lasting into late Sat or early Sunday.  It should be noted that the models are inconsistent as to the length of the wet period, with a few earlier runs keeping it wet on through Halloween.  Hence, the uncertainty in this discussion.
For the Nov 2-4 period, it is possible for strong “Santa Ana” type winds to develop over the Valley and southern CA.  High pressure may build over NV, driving a strong wind down the barometric gradient from NV to the CA coast.  This is not unusual in October, as you know.  Dusty, once the ground around you dries.
Lots of cold storm action will be developing over the far western Pacific, which may portend a lot of stormy, mountain snow weather for the PNW around mid-November and additional rains for the Golden State.  Way back in August, the staff here at The WxCafe (TM) – me, myself and I – pondered the impact of cold atmospheric conditions over an oddly named Chukchi Sea & the Bering Sea on a rainy start to fall across the west coast.  Now, we sip through our morning beverage and find the impact to have merit many weeks later.  Yes, a simplistic perspective for wx geeks, but enough of a ponder point to merit discussion around the counter at the ole’ WxCafe.
Given that discussions here at this website will end next week, remember the link to The Weather Cafe ® via (upper righthand corner), will continue to be active all through what could be an interesting winter.  La Nina has formed, and pretends to be a strong one.  Specific storm activity that could impact CA is always called out in the PNW forecast postings, so peek in once in a while to know ahead of the others.
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