Friday October 28 – 
The long anticipated wet period is definitely getting attention.  It will begin to dry out by Sundayafternoon, evening.  Colder air moving in behind the systems will, by Sunday, drop snow level in them there hills down to 7,000-7,500 ft in portions of the Sierra Range.  The overall pattern will shift back to ‘classic Cal’ weather by next week.  It is a bit ‘iffy’ on HALLOWEEN evening as to being completely dry.  Right now, Candy Hunters should enjoy a dry, but chilly evening walking the neighborhood in areas south of Modesto; north of there, don’t be shocked to have a stray shower or two.
As noted above, a slow warming cycle coming next week, with temps rebounding to normal and even tapping a little above normal by the first weekend of November.
Up in OR & WA and far northern CA, we are expecting more steady rain beginning Wednesday, Nov 2.  Then, a long period of increasingly more powerful storms will slam into the PNW & portions of northern CA from Fri Nov 4 on through at least Mon Nov 14.  Models do suggest that a couple of these storms will be large enough & with a long “tail” of rain bands that could impact the San Joaquin during that period.  Latest runs show RAIN returning to at least the northern portion of the San Joaquin by late Monday, on the Eve of Election Day.  It could be WET on Election Day, with a short break on Wed, then heavy RAIN returning overnight Wed into Thu Nov 10.  Another shot of rain may arrive during the weekend of Nov 12,13.
La Nina Ponder Point:  The media ran endless stories on El Nino last year and its impact on CA.   What is truly interesting is that a La Nina type pattern has developed over the central tropical Pacific ocean area since last October.  The change in surface temps of the ocean in that region have DROPPED 8-10 degrees F in 12 months.  THAT is an incredible change for water temps.  Were the conditions reversed, that is, the ocean temps warmed 8-10 degrees in one year, well, you can guess what the media would do with that bit of information.  Our point here is merely to observe what is fact and point out how that fact is reported.  We know La Nina years tend to bring above normal rainfall to the PNW and lots of mountain snow.  On average.  CA tends to lean drier, but as with El Nino events, this is NOT always what happens.  Last year, CA did NOT get washed out to sea.  Right now, rainfall amounts around the West Coast in October – and what we see today for the first half of November – is excellent, esp compared to the drought period.
Personal Note:  Thanks for following these discussions this year.  It has been a pleasure sharing the fascinating features of weather with you these past 3 months.  Take care!
“Politics is the art of obtaining money from the rich and votes from the poor on the pretext of protecting each from the other.”
-Rufus
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Sadly, this is the last report in our Harvest Season Weather Forecast series.  We would like to thank Rufus and The Weather Cafe® for his forecasts and look forward to working with him again soon!  

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